The blog telephone game, or why I hate the Apple rumor mill.
Don't get me wrong, I enjoy a good rumor as much as the next gadget hound. What I hate (and Apple is especially prone to this) is how they get blown totally out of proportion by the blogosphere.
Robert Cringely's recent article is a perfect example. In his latest article, the ever topical Cringely posits that Apple will have virtualization in the newest version of it's OS, allowing Mac users to run Windows without the rebooting gymnastics that Boot Camp currently requires. While I think this is a great idea, Cringely bases this on what really boils do nothing more than a gut feeling. And don't get me wrong; I think the odds are around 50/50 that Apple will indeed do this at some point (I'm far from certain though...while Apple would benefit from virtualization in some ways, there are some clear advantages to letting the third party companies take care of it that I won't go into here), but that's not the point. The point is that Cringely is saying this essentially because HE thinks it's a good idea.
And that really isn't the problem either. The problem is the blogs and news sites that pick up and report the story. The smaller sites essentially just want to link to the article, and they give it a headline like "Next version of OS X to have virtualization". From there, it makes it's way up through the foodchain to the mainstream sites, where it finally lands in the hands of the analysts. And this is where it becomes a problem, because the analysts consider it a credible rumor (after all, so many sites are talking about it) and they release a statement with their belief that this is what Apple will do. And all the blogs pick that up as confirmation of the initial rumor, proving that there's something behind it.
All because one guy thought "Wouldn't it be cool if Apple....?"
And again, I'm not in any way trying to be critical of Cringely (I'll save that for another article). And I'm not saying this happens to every rumor (only time will tell if it will happen with this one). But the next time you read about an analyst reporting on what they see in Apple's future, ask yourself if it was the lead article in Think Secret two weeks ago.
You'll see a pattern.
Robert Cringely's recent article is a perfect example. In his latest article, the ever topical Cringely posits that Apple will have virtualization in the newest version of it's OS, allowing Mac users to run Windows without the rebooting gymnastics that Boot Camp currently requires. While I think this is a great idea, Cringely bases this on what really boils do nothing more than a gut feeling. And don't get me wrong; I think the odds are around 50/50 that Apple will indeed do this at some point (I'm far from certain though...while Apple would benefit from virtualization in some ways, there are some clear advantages to letting the third party companies take care of it that I won't go into here), but that's not the point. The point is that Cringely is saying this essentially because HE thinks it's a good idea.
And that really isn't the problem either. The problem is the blogs and news sites that pick up and report the story. The smaller sites essentially just want to link to the article, and they give it a headline like "Next version of OS X to have virtualization". From there, it makes it's way up through the foodchain to the mainstream sites, where it finally lands in the hands of the analysts. And this is where it becomes a problem, because the analysts consider it a credible rumor (after all, so many sites are talking about it) and they release a statement with their belief that this is what Apple will do. And all the blogs pick that up as confirmation of the initial rumor, proving that there's something behind it.
All because one guy thought "Wouldn't it be cool if Apple....?"
And again, I'm not in any way trying to be critical of Cringely (I'll save that for another article). And I'm not saying this happens to every rumor (only time will tell if it will happen with this one). But the next time you read about an analyst reporting on what they see in Apple's future, ask yourself if it was the lead article in Think Secret two weeks ago.
You'll see a pattern.
posted by Incredibly Fat Man at 6:09 PM
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